Thriving or Surviving? The Manufacturing Sector Health Check - December 2025

When we examined the performance of our manufacturing and engineering sector last month, we determined that despite some drops, the sector is surviving some significant challenges.

Let’s look at the numbers from this month’s data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and see what direction the data is taking.

GDP (for October 2025)

Manufacturing GDP edged up 0.5 points to 99.3 for October 2025. This outpaced the figure for the total UK GDP, which went down a tenth of a point to 102.4.

The three manufacturing sub-sectors demonstrating the largest growth in the last month are:

• Manufacture of machinery and equipment       4.4%
• Manufacture of transport equipment                 3.6%
• Other manufacturing                                                 2.8%

Employment and vacancies (for November 2025)

Paid employees in manufacturing fell by an estimated 7,000 for the second month running, a decline of 0.3%. The UK lost 38,000 paid employees, marking a change of -0.13%.

Vacancies in manufacturing rose by 2,000 (4.17%) in October. This is the second monthly increase in a row. Manufacturing vacancies have dropped 10.7% year on year, compared to a 9.7% drop for all sectors.

Wages and payroll (for October 2025)

Mean pay in manufacturing continues to rise – the latest data indicates an increase of 0.46% to £3,677. Mean pay for the UK as a whole showed an increase of 0.56% to £3,405.

Aggregate pay in the UK rose by 0.5% (£499.8m) to £103.14 billion per month. The manufacturing sector saw roughly the same relative increase (0.49%), taking the figure up by £41.3 million to £8.51 billion per month.

Exports and Production (for October 2025)

Exports decreased slightly this month, by 1.1% overall.

The three manufacturing sub-sectors which displayed the largest export growth in October were:

• Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers                                                                   23.4%
• Manufacture of printing and reproduction of recorded media                                                            21.3%
• Manufacture of industrial gases, inorganics and fertilisers (all inorganic chemicals)                       17.7%

UK Production Values (for October 2025)

The three sectors with the largest percentage of production value growth recorded in October were:

• Manufacture of leather and related products                                       17.4%
• Other manufacturing                                                                              16.3%
• Manufacturing of transport equipment                                                 12.9%

Meanwhile, the three sectors showing the large decrease in production value were:

• Repair and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft                            -38.0%
• Manufacture of other transport equipment                                         -18.0%
• Building of ships and boats                                                                  -9.5%

Our take on the latest ONS data

Manufacturing GDP in October edged up by half a point to 99.3, outpacing the UK total GDP, which decreased by a tenth of a point to 102.4. This differential movement of 0.6 points suggests manufacturing delivered a stronger near‑term impulse than that of the broader economy.

The number of paid manufacturing employees in November continues to fall at a greater rate than the UK’s figures as a whole, indicating continued contraction of the sector.

The number of employees in manufacturing fell again in November, but vacancies rose along with continued wage increases. With headcount down (‑0.3% MoM) and vacancies up (+4.17% MoM), it could be a case of churn: firms may be moving cautiously on permanent staffing but still recruiting into specific roles.

Exports in October fell, indicating a softening of the market. However, coupling this fall with the increase in GDP, we could be looking at a period of strong domestic demand.

All in all, we say the manufacturing sector is surviving with pockets of strength. The sector is navigating headwinds (exports and jobs both trending down), but showing countervailing positives (GDP and wages up, vacancies on the increase again, a strong sub‑sector performance in machinery/vehicles).

On balance, the centre of gravity is stabilisation rather than acceleration; targeted sub‑sector strategies could tilt towards thriving.

What’s your view on the latest data? Is the sector Thriving or Surviving? Get more updates from the Enginuity LinkedIn page.

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